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Track Record · Public Ledger

We publish our predictions before the results exist.

Fresh videos, scored while nobody knows how they will perform. Every prediction is locked into this ledger, then measured against real 7 and 30 day results. Misses included.

8

Predictions logged

0

Outcomes measured

Jul 5, 2026

Logging since

Calibration

Calibration statistics unlock once 50 predictions have completed their 30-day measurement window. No numbers get quoted before the sample carries them.

First 30-day results land on Aug 4, 2026. Every prediction below is already locked.

The ledger

Grouped by weekly cohort. Newest cohorts show every prediction; older cohorts are collapsed into their totals.

How this ledger works

Committed before scoring.

Each week the cohort — niches, time window, and search queries — is frozen into the ledger before any video is scored. The selection rules are stored with the cohort, so the batch is reproducible and cherry-picking is structurally impossible.

Fresh videos, picked by date.

Candidates are less than 72 hours old and selected by publish date, never by views. Predicting videos that are already trending would prove nothing; predicting before the outcome exists is the point.

Scored from metadata, labeled as such.

System predictions read a video's public metadata (title, description, tags) through the same scoring engine users get. Each row records the exact model and prompt version used, so the series stays comparable over time.

Measured against the channel's own baseline.

After 7 and 30 days we record real views and compute the multiplier: views divided by the median views of that channel's recent uploads. Channels with too little history get no multiplier rather than a misleading one.

Nothing gets removed.

Outcomes are written next to the prediction — hits and misses alike. Deleted or private videos are flagged as unavailable, not dropped. The database itself rejects edits to logged predictions.

Scores are pattern-based estimates, not guarantees. How the score itself works

Questions

How does the PreViral track record work?

Every week PreViral commits a batch of freshly published YouTube videos, selected by publish date only, before anyone knows how they will perform. Each video gets a score from the same engine our users see, the prediction is locked into a public ledger, and after 7 and 30 days we record the real view counts next to it. Nothing is removed afterwards, including misses.

What does the channel multiplier mean?

The multiplier compares a video's views to the median views of that channel's own recent uploads. A 3x after 30 days means the video did three times better than what is normal for that channel. It measures outperformance relative to the channel's baseline, so small channels and large channels can be read on the same scale.

Why do some entries say pending or unavailable?

Predictions are logged the moment they are made, so fresh entries wait for their 7 and 30 day measurement dates. If a video is deleted or set to private before measurement, we flag it as unavailable instead of quietly dropping it from the ledger.

Are the results cherry-picked?

No. The selection rules for each weekly batch, including the niches, the time window, and the search queries, are frozen in the ledger before scoring starts. Videos are picked by publish date, not by views, and every prediction stays visible whether it hit or missed.

Page methodology last updated 2026-07-04.